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Politics

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30.6%

+0.3 pts over 2D

Politics

Tracks major political events, leaders, and developments.

Index probability

Constituent markets

index = Σ ( market probability × weight )

MarketSideWeightContribution

Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 28, 2026?

trading at 88% yes

Yes

Weight12.7%

Contribution+11.2 pts

Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on August 28, 2026?

trading at 29% yes

Yes

Weight12.5%

Contribution+3.6 pts

Will Trump's approval rating be less than 37.0 on August 28, 2026?

trading at 1% yes

Yes

Weight12.5%

Contribution+0.1 pts

Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026?

trading at 14% yes

Yes

Weight12.5%

Contribution+1.8 pts

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

trading at 54% yes

Up

Weight12.5%

Contribution+6.8 pts

Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?

trading at 2% yes

Yes

Weight12.5%

Contribution+0.2 pts

Graham Platner charged by August 31?

trading at 14% yes

Yes

Weight12.5%

Contribution+1.7 pts

Don Lemon sentenced to prison?

trading at 44% yes

Yes

Weight12.3%

Contribution+5.3 pts

Total

Weight100%

Contribution+30.6 pts