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Politics

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30.6%

+0.3 pts en 2D

Politics

Tracks major political events, leaders, and developments.

Probabilidad del índice

Mercados constitutivos

índice = Σ ( probabilidad del mercado × peso )

MercadoLadoPesoContribución

Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 28, 2026?

cotiza a 88% sí

Yes

Peso12.7%

Contribución+11.2 pts

Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on August 28, 2026?

cotiza a 29% sí

Yes

Peso12.5%

Contribución+3.6 pts

Will Trump's approval rating be less than 37.0 on August 28, 2026?

cotiza a 1% sí

Yes

Peso12.5%

Contribución+0.1 pts

Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026?

cotiza a 14% sí

Yes

Peso12.5%

Contribución+1.8 pts

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

cotiza a 54% sí

Up

Peso12.5%

Contribución+6.8 pts

Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?

cotiza a 2% sí

Yes

Peso12.5%

Contribución+0.2 pts

Graham Platner charged by August 31?

cotiza a 14% sí

Yes

Peso12.5%

Contribución+1.7 pts

Don Lemon sentenced to prison?

cotiza a 44% sí

Yes

Peso12.3%

Contribución+5.3 pts

Total

Peso100%

Contribución+30.6 pts